Illusory Correlations

We're studying a bit about illusory correlations and what especially interested me was the note that the author began with, that while many doctors and patients believe arthritis pain is correlated with weather changes, the scientific data is not present to support this. This interests me, as my fiancée suffers from fibromyalgia, a disease similar to arthritis that causes chronic pain and both of us seem to notice the pain is worse in winter. Yet, I looked at studies and confirmed that there is also no link between weather and fibromyalgia pain. Are we really that bad at seeing correlations? The ebb and flow of pain is constant, but we find a link because everyone else seems to find a link.

It appears that our system is quite susceptible to suggestions from others and "common sense." Mathematics, which is, of course, done by humans, had the quite serious problem that mathematicians were mostly using common sense to make claims about things. This worked when we try to prove 1+1=2, but when we try to prove things that get more complicated, it falls apart. It was as mathematics got more complicated and advanced mathematics became used more and more in practical applications that the axiomatic proof method became widespread. Mathematicians accepted nothing without a proof to go with it. I recall having to prove that any number times 0 is 0. Unfortunately, our memory system is not robust enough to be able to axiomatically and logically prove everything. We must make assumptions and inferences or the world would overwhelm us. Problems like illusory correlations become outweighed by the benefit of having the ability to make inferences. But these problems are why, as scientists, we must not make assumptions about the world without data to back it up.